By Jordan Young and Trinity Manning-Pickett are
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will continue to increase as five LNG export projects start operations and ramp up production by the end of 2027. It also forecasts increased natural gas pipeline exports, mainly to Mexico. In its forecast, net exports of US natural gas (exports minus imports) grow 18% to 18.7 bcf/d (529.5 x 106 m3/d) in 2026. In 2027, net exports increase another 10% to 20.5 bcf/d (42.4 x 106 m3/d).
The EIA forecasts that US LNG exports rise 1.9 bcf/d (53.8 x 106 m3/d) in 2026 to average 17 bcf/d (481.3 x 106 m3/d) and increase by an additional 9% (1.5 bcf/d [424.4 x 106 m3/d]) in 2027. Natural gas pipeline exports are expected to grow by 4% (0.4 bcf/d [11.3 x 106 m3/d]) in 2026 and 2% (0.2 bcf/d [6.5 x 106 m3/d]) in 2027.
The EIA expects US LNG export terminals will run at slightly higher utilization rates in 2026 despite already running at relatively high rates in 2025 because recent disruptions to LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing demand for LNG cargoes from outside the strait. The disruptions, mostly concentrated in Qatar, currently represent over 10 bcf/d (283.1 x 106 m3/d), or 20% of global supply. Qatar also sustained damage to 17% of its export capacity after a March 18 attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility damaged two liquefaction trains. QatarEnergy estimates repairs on the damaged trains could take up to five years.
Current US peak export capacity is 18.3 bcf/d (518.1 x 106 m3/d). In 2026, Corpus Christi Stage 3 will start up trains 5–7 (0.6 bcf/d [16.9 x 106 m3/d] combined), and Golden Pass LNG will start up its first two trains (1.4 bcf/d [39.6 x 106 m3/d]). The EIA expects Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 (1.6 bcf/d [45.3 x 106 m3/d]), Rio Grande LNG Trains 1 & 2 (1.4 bcf/d), and the final train of Golden Pass LNG (0.7 bcf/d [19.8 x 106 m3/d]) will begin exports next year. In addition to these new terminals, Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG received DOE approval in March and April 2026 to increase their permitted exports by 0.5 bcf/d (14.1 x 106 m3/d) and 0.1 bcf/d 2.8 x 106 m3/d), respectively.
In 2025, US LNG exports to Europe reached a record 10.3 bcf/d (291.6 x 106 m3/d), up from 6.3 bcf/d (178.3 x 106 m3/d) in 2024 and accounted for 68% of LNG export volumes, according to the EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly. Exports to Italy and Poland rose the fastest in Europe. Exports to Asia fell from 4 bcf/d (113.2 x 106 m3/d) in 2024 to 2.5 bcf/d (70.7 x 106 m3/d) in 2025, representing 16% of LNG export volumes. China-bound US LNG exports fell to zero in 2025 from 0.6 bcf/d (19.9 x 106 m3/d) in 2024 as traders resold cargoes due to trade tensions. Additionally, exports to Egypt quadrupled from 0.3 bcf/d (8.4 x 106 m3/d) in 2024 to 1.2 bcf/d (38.9 x 106 m3/d) in 2025, which drove a 0.7 bcf/d increase in exports to the rest of the world.
US LNG imports, which primarily serve New England and generally peak in winter months, were essentially unchanged at less than 0.1 bcf/d in 2025. The EIA expects LNG imports to average 0.1 bcf/d in 2026–27 and continue to serve as a marginal supply source during periods of high demand, particularly in the winter months.
The EIA expects US pipeline exports to continue increasing over the forecast period, reaching 9.8 bcf/d (277.5 x 106 m3/d) in 2026 and 10 bcf/d in 2027, after rising 0.4 bcf/d (11.3 x 106 m3/d) in 2025 to average 9.5 bcf/d 269.01 x 106 m3/d). This upward trend is driven by Mexico’s growing demand for natural gas, both from growth in power generation and the development of two new LNG export facilities expected to come online over the next two years. Those facilities will be fed by US-origin pipeline gas exports. The Energía Costa Azul LNG terminal and the second phase of Fast LNG Altamira Floating LNG production vessel will have a combined 0.6 bcf/d of export capacity and are expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
US natural gas pipeline imports from Canada rose by 0.1 bcf/d in 2025, averaging 8.6 bcf/d (243.5 x 106 m3/d). Th EIA expects pipeline imports from Canada to decrease to 8 bcf/d (226.5 x 106 m3/d) in 2027 as two LNG facilities with a combined capacity of 2.1 bcf/d (59.4 x 106 m3/d) along the west coast of Canada ramp up over the next few years, and Northeast US natural gas demand is supplied by production growth in the Appalachia region.
About The Authors
Jordan Young and Trinity Manning-Pickett are research analysts for the US Energy Information Administration.
