By Jordan Young
Prices for natural gas in Europe and Asia have diverged from those in the United States since the February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivery to the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European benchmark price, increased to US$14.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the week ending April 24, 35% higher than before the closure, according to data from Bloomberg L.P. In East Asia, the front-month futures price for the benchmark Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), rose 51% over the same period to US$16.02/MMBtu. In contrast, natural gas prices at the US benchmark Henry Hub have decreased 9% since February 28 due to limited opportunities for increasing LNG exports in the near term and ample domestic seasonal natural gas storage and supply.
The closure of the strait has affected over 10 bcf/d (283.1 x 106m3/d) of global LNG supplies, or approximately 20%, mostly from Qatar’s Ras Laffan export facility. No laden LNG vessels are known to have crossed the strait between March 1 and April 24, according to Kpler data.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US LNG exports will increase, but only by a small portion of the missing volumes. Since the closure, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has approved two increases to terminal export authorizations to countries lacking free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States since February — Plaquemines LNG (0.5 bcf/d [14.1 x 106m3/d]) in March and Elba Island (0.1 bcf/d [2.8 x 106m3/d]) in April. Countries lacking FTAs are the destinations for almost all US LNG export volumes. In addition, the EIA expects that approximately 2.4 bcf/d (67.9 x 106m3/d) of DOE-authorized export capacity will come online between April and December 2026 — Golden Pass (Trains 1 and 2) and Corpus Christi Stage 3 (Trains 5 through 7).
Operators already run US LNG terminals at high utilization rates, limiting additional natural gas export growth, which in turn limits the potential for significant price increases in the US domestic market. The United States exported an estimated 17.9 bcf/d (506.8 x 106m3/d) of LNG in March, the second-highest monthly export volume since December 2025’s record 18.4 bcf/d (521.09 x 106m3/d). The export terminal capacity utilization in March amounted to 94% of the maximum DOE-approved export levels, according to the EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook and Liquefaction Capacity File. Exports rose from an estimated 17.3 bcf/d (489.8 x 106m3/d) in February, with a 91% terminal utilization rate.
The weekly average front-month futures prices for the US benchmark Henry Hub have remained generally insulated from price volatility abroad. Henry Hub futures prices have fallen 9% since the week ending February 27 as the winter season ends and domestic consumption has declined. At the beginning of injection season, daily Henry Hub prices for the prompt-month were the lowest since October 2024.
About The Author
Jordan Young is a research analyst at the US Energy Information Administration.
